For most of 2026, the National League MVP conversation felt like a coronation waiting to happen. Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers’ two-way supernova, was supposed to cruise to another hardware haul. Instead, as September wears on, Ohtani is slipping out of the top tier of candidates—and it’s not because someone suddenly out-hit him. It’s because his body has staged a quiet revolt.
Ohtani hasn’t pitched since July 3, sidelined by left knee soreness that flared during his ramp-up and a right biceps issue that first dinged his hitting, then his throwing. That alone narrows his MVP profile. No more two-way dominance, just DH-only production with the pitching bonus evaporating from his résumé.
Then came the batting slump. After a rough 0-for-4, four-strikeout night against the Cardinals, the Dodgers sat him the next day—then the next—marking the first time this season Ohtani has missed three straight starts as a hitter. Manager Dave Roberts has called him day to day, but also admitted the team is weighing an injured-list stint that could be backdated three days if he can’t go by Sunday. Ohtani’s availability is shaky, and the MVP clock is ticking.
The stats reflect the fade. Ohtani’s August dipped to a .241 average and .795 OPS—his worst monthly marks since early 2022—while his power dried up; he entered this week without a home run since Aug. 18 and mired in a 6-for-42 slump over an 11-game stretch. More importantly, his overall value has stalled. Entering the final month, Pete Crow-Armstrong led MLB with 9.3 WAR; Ohtani sat at 6.8 when combining pitching and hitting. With Ohtani’s pitching line frozen since July and his bat cooling, that gap only widens when he’s not in the lineup.
Meanwhile, the Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong has turned August into an MVP audition. He blasted 14 homers in the month, including a three-homer, six-RBI outburst and back-to-back multi-homer games, pushing his season total to 38.
Betting markets have reacted accordingly. Crow-Armstrong is now the heavy NL MVP favorite, with odds around -1600 to -2500, while Ohtani has drifted to +900 or roughly 13% implied probability. The narrative shift is stark. Early-season chatter framed Ohtani as the default winner; now, the question is whether he can even stay in the conversation if he can’t get back on the mound and can’t stay in the lineup. As one recent headline put it, the longer Ohtani stays off the mound, the more the MVP pendulum swings toward Crow-Armstrong.
Ohtani’s case was always built on rarity. His elite hitting plus legitimate frontline pitching. Strip away the innings, and you’re left with a very good—but not historically transcendent—DH season, especially when he’s missing games. Voters tend to reward availability and late-season momentum, two boxes Ohtani isn’t checking right now.
His knee, biceps, and overall body soreness have not only halted his return to the rotation; they’ve sapped his offensive consistency, too. Crow-Armstrong, by contrast, is doing the opposite: playing every day, driving runs, and carrying a marquee team in the stretch. That’s the kind of narrative that sticks in voters’ minds when ballots are filled out in November.
Here’s the thing, folks: For Ohtani to reclaim the lead, he needs two things. He need to get healthy and have a hot September. Get back in the lineup, string together extra-base hits, and—crucially—throw a few meaningful innings before the season ends. Even a small sample of effective pitching would re-open the two-way argument and remind voters what makes his season unique. But every day he sits, and every week he stays off the mound, the window narrows.
With that . . . The NL MVP race has become the season’s most compelling late twist with the presumed winner fading on the sideline, and a young star in Chicago turning August into a coronation of his own.
If you cannot play with them, then root for them!
Please visit Binary News where we post regular opinion pieces about including but not limited to business, politics, sports, and technology.